The annual post for the Kentucky Derby Trailmix tradition.
This post is heavy on facts and figures, mainly because horse players study the numbers as if they were holy writ. You can see them at every track gazing hypnotically at the Daily Racing Form or these days with their tablets and laptops tuned to TVG or Twinspires, the racing channels on cable so they can watch all the races all the time. They are trying to find gold in the Beyer Scale for payoffs of the Daily Double, Exacta, Trifecta, and Pick Four with or without multiple horses per race and boxing. If you understand that last sentence, you may have spent a few hours as a railbird (Watch the action from down in the trenches and rarely migrate farther than the ground level of the track). In Washington they go undercover at the snack bars while letting the horses deal with mud.
Wonderful Artist Jen Ferguson with her interpretation of Railbirds
The reason I insist on your choices before the Post Position draw is that it is an important element in the calculations. This year it will be on the afternoon of May 4. The Oaks for the fillies will be run on May 6 and the Kentucky Derby on May 7. For starters, no horse leaving from gate 17 has ever won. The only horses to win in the far outside posts were really big, really strong, and very fast with a great jockey: 18: Gato Del Sol (1982); 19: I’ll Have Another (2012) and 20: Big Brown (2008). These are where you don’t want to be in the pill pull.
The posts with the magic 7 & 8 winners are: 1, 2, 5, and 8, and only one with 9 winners post 10. Basically, you want a horse in 14 or less preferably in the first 10. Getting to that rail from way out is hard for both the horse and the jockey who is trying to find a hole in that mass of horses all aiming for the same place.
There are some truly beautiful horses in the following list in case you want to look them up on line. Just google the horses name plus the word horse. Unless you mention you are looking for a horse, Google gets really confused by the names.
Post Position Winners (since the use of a starting gate in 1930): The winner was one of the few Triple Crown horses: Gallant Fox
Ferdinand (1986); Chateaugay (1963); Needles (1956); Hill Gail (1952); Citation (1948); Gallahadion (1940); Lawrin (1938); War Admiral (1937)
Affirmed (1978); Bold Forbes (1976); Cannonade (1974); Dust Commander (1970); Tim Tam (1958); Ponder (1949) Assault (1946)
Real Quiet (1998); Alysheba (1987); Spectacular Bid (1979); Foolish Pleasure (1975); Shut Out (1942)
FiveThirtyEight: “Donald Trump’s romp through the Northeast corridor last week shattered all expectations. It also positions Indiana’s contest today as a desperate last stand for Ted Cruz and the #NeverTrump movement.”
I get a kick out of all these pundits saying that no one is excited by Hillary. I just want to bang their know-it-all heads together. No we aren’t “excited”. We just love her.
Every woman who has ever dealt with a couple of children 20 months apart, a full time job, a house and a cheating husband who thinks it is all “woman’s work” wants to strangle them in their comfortable news chairs. Every woman who has ever lived on welfare while explaining why she didn’t use her non existent credit card to replace the dead auto part that made her late to work wants to skewer them with the nearest ice pick. It is a long, long list of “every woman” experiences and like the lyric in Les Miz “Just as well they never see the hate that’s in your head”
Hillary may have been born upper middle class, gotten a great education thanks to a brilliant mind, married well, established great connections, made a success of her life and is now reaping the rewards, but we are all looking below the surface of what it took in coins paid from her soul that it took to get there.
Yes there is a “Woman’s Card” and a whole lot of us are pulling it out of the deck in order to Trump and take the trick.
In Thursday’s Washington Post, Greg Sargent posted a piece with this title: The End is Near: Clinton and Sanders Camps Signal Resolution. It was inevitable wasn’t it? While the ultimate outcome of the race may have seemed to be up in the air a month ago, now it seems like the outcome is all but certain and it’s time for the candidates to look toward the Fall election against … Trump.
The signs are everywhere this morning: The Clinton and Sanders camps are now signaling how the Democratic primaries might wind down without too much noise, contentiousness, disruption, and anger. Could things still get very ugly? Yes. But at this point, that’s looking less likely than the alternative.
In an interview with me, Rep. Keith Ellison, a top supporter of Bernie Sanders who is also the co-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, suggested the Clinton camp had some work to do in order to appeal to Sanders’s supporters. But he also carefully noted that Sanders would not do anything to imperil the party unity that will be required to defeat Donald Trump.
But Ellison added: “Every Bernie supporter knows that this Supreme Court issue is looming. We’ll have party unity….everybody has a responsibility to make sure there will never be a President Trump. Bernie has been around a long time….he’s not going to hand this country over to Donald Trump.”
Ellison’s a smart guy, and I certainly hope his words are prophetic. Bernie, of all people, should know exactly what is at stake should Trump pull off a win in November. Hell, Citizen’s United has been one of his primary issues during the campaign.
In 2008, after the divisive primary season concluded, Feinstein opened her Washington manse to host a secret unity meeting between Obama and Clinton. She said she would reprise that role for Clinton and Sanders. “I’d be very happy to offer that,” Feinstein said.
The other day, another top Clinton backer, Senator Sherrod Brown — who has great credibility among economic progressives — also offered in an interview with me to take part in any negotiating efforts to unite the camps. He even suggested that Clinton “should work with him on the platform,” and offered some areas of common ground they could reach on financial reform (an area of real disagreement), such as how to toughen up Dodd-Frank’s requirements for big banks’ plans to wind down in a crisis.
I have heard nothing of the sort coming from the Republican contestants or their surrogates. Now that Cruz has picked Fiorina as his running mate there can be no doubt that he intends to continue to tear at Trump. Tear away, I say.
This Bernie Sanders fundraising email strikes me as a cynical attempt to continue bleeding his faithful to finance a ponzie scheme.
Coming out of last night’s results, in which we won Rhode Island but came up short in four others, I want to pose to you three things that I know to be true:
Young people – the future of our country – continue to vote for our campaign in overwhelming numbers. It’s remarkable, and honestly quite humbling.
When we compete in open primaries that encourage the participation of independents, new voters, and young people, we do very well.
What remains in front of us is a very narrow path to the nomination. In the weeks to come we will be competing in a series of states that are very favorable to us – including California. Just like after March 15 – when we won 8 of the next 9 contests – we are building tremendous momentum going into the convention.
That is the reality of where we are right now, and why we are going to fight for every delegate and every vote. It is why I am going to continue to speak to voters in every state about the very important issues facing our country. Our country cannot afford to stop fighting for a $15 minimum wage, to overturn Citizens United, or to get universal health care for every man, woman, and child in America.
I’m asking you to help me continue to lead these fights. We have an FEC deadline on Saturday and another primary on Tuesday. Every vote we earn and every delegate we win is a testament to our ideas, to our movement, to our political revolution, and our willingness to take this campaign for the Democratic nomination all the way to the convention.
Will you contribute $2.70 to help us continue to speak to voters about the incredibly important issues facing our country? Your support right now before two big deadlines will send an unmistakable message that our voices will still be heard.
There is no doubt in my mind that what you and I have done together up to this point is nothing short of historic. And I know that if we are going to work together, we will continue making history.
NPR: “Bernie Sanders has come a long way, but the Vermont independent is running out of friendly states. … If Trump has a big day — and Ted Cruz struggles again — the New York billionaire may seem inevitable. Cruz will also likely be mathematically eliminated from winning the nomination on first ballot.”
Writing in The Washington Post today, Jim Webb examines the recent debate about Andrew Jackson …
The dismissive characterization of one of our great presidents is not occurring in a vacuum. It offers an indication of how far political correctness has invaded our educational system and skewed our national consciousness.